Canada's population growth is expected to increasingly rely on immigration as natural population growth slows, according to experts analyzing demographic patterns.
The parliamentary budget officer forecasts that by 2026, Canada may experience its second consecutive year of zero population growth, as outlined in the federal government's Immigration Levels Plan.
Statistics Canada data reveals that in 2024, the country saw a population increase of approximately 816,000 individuals through both temporary and permanent immigration. In contrast, natural population growth, defined as births minus deaths, was significantly smaller at around 34,000 people.
Dan Hiebert, a geography professor at the University of British Columbia specializing in migration studies, emphasized to CTV that Canada is approaching a pivotal moment where immigration could drive all population growth.
He stated, "Natural increase in Canada is projected to reach zero soon, possibly by 2029 or 2030. At that point, immigration will account for 100% of population growth. This is historically unprecedented and means that the government's immigration targets will directly impact population growth."
A government report from 2024 also suggests that newcomers could be responsible for all population growth in Canada by the year 2032.
