In numerous countries worldwide, populations are aging and fertility rates are decreasing, according to the latest State of World Population report by the UN sexual and reproductive rights agency (UNFPA). Economic insecurity, inequality, and lack of support are key factors leading approximately one in five adults globally to believe they will not achieve their desired number of children.
Michael Herrmann, an economist and demographer at UNFPA, advises against overreacting to demographic changes, emphasizing the need to understand, plan for, and adapt to these shifts. He highlights the concept of "demographic resilience," which involves helping societies anticipate and adjust to population changes, regardless of whether their populations are growing, shrinking, or aging.
As populations age, a shrinking workforce becomes a visible consequence. Rather than simply raising retirement ages, Herrmann suggests offering more flexible work options to accommodate the diverse capacities and preferences of older adults. Cash incentives and fertility targets implemented by some governments in response to declining birth rates have shown limited and short-term effects, as per Herrmann.
UNFPA's ongoing Youth Reproductive Choices Survey in 70 countries aims to understand why people are having fewer children than desired. Initial findings point to economic and social pressures, including high living costs, job insecurity, and unequal gender roles. Herrmann stresses that these issues cannot be resolved through monetary incentives alone.
Policies driven by concerns of population decline may inadvertently infringe on rights, particularly those of women. Herrmann advocates for a rights-based approach that focuses on enabling individuals to have the number of children they desire. He asserts that addressing the challenges posed by aging populations requires inclusive policies that support families without coercion.
Herrmann underscores the importance of addressing the shrinking labor force through inclusivity, bringing more women, migrants, young people, and older workers into employment. Migration is identified as a significant demographic force, with countries like Germany avoiding population decline through inward migration. However, successful integration of migrants into the labor market requires language training, recognition of qualifications, and pathways to employment.
In conclusion, Herrmann emphasizes the significance of understanding people's realities and crafting policies that enhance choice rather than restrict it. By embracing demographic changes with fairness and foresight, societies can effectively manage these shifts in the long term.
