The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) scientist Alvaro Silva has stated that El Niño is expected to intensify, leading to a rise in global temperatures. During El Niño years, global temperatures typically hit record levels.
Key Points: - El Niño has emerged in the tropical Pacific. - Rapid development is anticipated from July to September. - El Niño usually peaks between November and February. - Countries are being urged to take action based on the WMO warning to safeguard lives and livelihoods.
As per the WMO's monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, there is a strong likelihood of rapid development of El Niño conditions from July to September, with a high level of confidence in this forecast. This prediction is based on multi-model forecasting from WMO partners, indicating a consistent and significant warming of ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Sea-surface temperature anomalies are expected to exceed 2°C in monitored regions on average.
Regional Variations: On land, concerns are raised as well. WMO spokesperson Clare Nullis highlighted the worrying trend, mentioning record-breaking temperatures in parts of Europe in June. For instance, Germany recently set a new national temperature record of 41.7°C. Furthermore, the WMO update warns of a prolonged and hazardous heatwave in the central and eastern United States until the end of the week and into the Independence Day weekend.
Additionally, drier than average conditions are expected in Central America, the Caribbean, and parts of North and South America. Indonesia and Southeast Asia are likely to experience drier weather during the monsoon season, while East Africa is anticipated to have wetter conditions during the rainy season from September to December. The region may face flooding due to the Indian Ocean Dipole, another significant climate driver.
The WMO has initiated an unprecedented mobilization, along with its global members and partners in regional climate centers, to provide timely forecasts to governments for saving lives and protecting livelihoods in response to the El Niño alert.
El Niño and La Niña are opposing phases of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO), one of the most influential climate drivers. El Niño events occur every two to seven years, lasting between nine and 12 months, with peak intensity between November and February. The impact of El Niño varies based on intensity, duration, time of year, and interactions with other climate variability modes like the Indian Ocean Dipole.
WMO emphasizes that even when ENSO is neutral, extreme weather events can still occur. El Niño and La Niña events are classified by the agency as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong. The intensity of El Niño is crucial as it heightens the probability of extreme weather events globally, in addition to the ongoing climate change due to human activities, emphasized by WMO's Alvaro Silva.
