A high-ranking Pentagon official has acknowledged that implementing a US naval blockade of Iran is a challenging and unsustainable military operation in the long term.
The potential blockade, which President Donald Trump announced following failed peace talks in Islamabad, could provoke retaliation from Tehran and strain an already fragile ceasefire, according to experts. The blockade, set to commence on Monday at 10 am in Washington (7 pm PKT), will target ships traveling to and from Iran, including those visiting Iranian ports in the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
Trump's objective is to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for about 20% of the world's oil. However, experts caution that a blockade is a significant military endeavor that necessitates a continuous commitment of a substantial number of warships.
Dana Stroul, a former senior Pentagon official, emphasized the complexities of executing such a mission alone, stating that it may not be sustainable over the medium to long term. Specific details about the blockade, including the number of warships involved and potential assistance from Gulf allies, have not been disclosed by US Central Command.
Experts speculate on the potential consequences of the blockade, questioning whether the US Navy is prepared to intercept ships attempting to breach it, especially those carrying oil for major powers like China or US partners such as India and South Korea. Retired Admiral Gary Roughead warned of possible Iranian retaliation, including attacks on ships in the Gulf or on infrastructure in Gulf states hosting US forces.
The ongoing conflict with Iran has led to a surge in global oil prices, prompting concerns about its impact on the US economy. Trump hinted at the resumption of US strikes inside Iran and reiterated a strong stance against Iranian aggression, while Tehran's Revolutionary Guards issued a stern warning against any ceasefire breaches in the region.
As the situation escalates, experts stress the need for a diplomatic and international approach to resolve the crisis in the long term.
